The peak shipping season for U.S. container imports is winding down after an unusually long stretch of elevated volumes through the summer and early fall, the National Retail Federation said.
The latest Global Port Tracker report, produced by NRF and Hackett Associates, indicates August was likely the busiest month of 2026, replacing September as the anticipated peak. Imports are expected to ease through the remainder of the year as retailers shift from stocking holiday merchandise to replenishing inventories and preparing for early 2027.
“Even with any fluctuations in final data, we’re likely past the busiest part of the year,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The truth is that the peak season started early and was stretched out through the summer and early fall, with the difference from month to month often amounting to little more than a rounding error.”
Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units in August, the latest month with finalized figures. That was up 0.4% from July but down 0.7% from August 2025.
The trade group lowered its September forecast to 2.28 million TEUs from the previously projected 2.31 million. The revised estimate would still represent an 8.2% increase from a year earlier. October imports are forecast at 2.25 million TEUs, up 8.5% year over year, before declining to 2 million TEUs in November.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said imports have been bolstered by robust consumer spending despite weakening economic indicators, declining consumer confidence and increasing inflation.
The projections point to a gradual retreat from summer highs rather than an abrupt drop in cargo demand. Despite the expected month-to-month slowdown, September and October volumes would remain above their year-earlier levels.
Gold said most holiday merchandise has already arrived, with “last-minute replenishment and preparation for early 2027” driving shipments for the balance of the year.
The retailers forecast full-year imports at the ports covered by the report at 25.8 million TEUs, up 1.4% from 2025.
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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