Peak Season Is Coming – But Where Is The Freight Surge?

Peak season is upon us, but SONAR data reveals a surprising trend: tender rejection rates aren’t surging into Labor Day like previous years. While spot rates remain elevated year-over-year, the expected pre-holiday peak isn’t materializing. Is this the new normal for a supply-driven market, or a sign of deeper shifts with intermodal rail siphoning long-haul freight? Tune in for expert analysis on what’s driving this orderly market behavior and what it means for your operations.

Truckload tender rejections have stalled near 13.5% heading into Labor Day weekend, a notable departure from prior years when rejection rates began climbing earlier in August — a signal that the current freight cycle remains orderly rather than supply-constrained.

FreightWaves SONAR data reviewed on air shows the 2026 rejection rate peaked above 17.5% earlier this cycle, but has since consolidated. Julie Van de Kamp said she had expected rejection rates to reach the 18% range ahead of Labor Day but no longer believes that is likely. Craig Fuller put his informal forecast even lower.

“I’m not a forecaster, but if I had to bet, I would think we’re in the 15s,” Fuller said.

Comparing the current year to SONAR’s historical overlays — magenta for 2023, green for 2024, yellow for 2025 — prior cycles all showed a slow, steady August uptick culminating in a small Labor Day peak. The 2026 line, shown in blue, has not yet replicated that pattern, though Van de Kamp said she still expects some firming through the holiday weekend and in the typically busy week that follows.

A key structural factor suppressing the usual seasonal surge is rail. Both hosts pointed to railroads absorbing a significant share of long-haul freight that would otherwise move by truckload, keeping trucking volumes steady but not tight. Fuller noted the broader dynamic: “We haven’t seen demand pick up. It’s been pretty steady. And as we’ve talked about over and over again, this cycle is supply-driven.”

Van spot rates tell a similar story. At $3.29 per mile, rates are down roughly 2.5% month over month from a cycle peak above $3.80 per mile. Even so, Fuller emphasized that context matters: spot rates remain up 44% year over year. Contract rates, meanwhile, are up 17% year over year, and the gap between spot and contract continues to narrow as shippers adjust routing guides upward to keep them intact.

Fuller said he will be watching volume data market by market as Labor Day passes and the freight calendar moves closer to peak season, with particular attention on whether coastal markets begin to accelerate. Van de Kamp added that weekly AAR rail freight data — published every Wednesday — remains robust, reinforcing why trucking has not seen the kind of demand-driven tightening that characterized earlier cycles.

• Tender rejections are holding near 13.5% with no pre-Labor Day surge, below the cycle peak of 17.5% and well short of the 18% some had anticipated.
• Van spot rates sit at $3.29 per mile, down ~2.5% month over month but still up 44% year over year; contract rates are up 17% year over year.
• Rail is absorbing significant long-haul freight volume, a key reason truckload markets feel orderly rather than tight heading into peak season.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.