While the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, peak-season demand is expected to further boost ocean freight rates from a baseline elevated by fuel and capacity concerns.
Shipping platform Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO) analyst Judah Levine said rates on the benchmark trans-Pacific trade routes have climbed about $1,000 per forty foot equivalent unit (FEU) since the start of the Iran war in late February and are likely to climb further once peak season demand kicks in.
“Prices [from Asia] were about level last week at $2,800/per FEU to the West Coast and $4,300 per FEU to the East Coast though daily [spot] rates so far are climbing on these lanes, too, from mid-month price hikes,” Levine wrote in a research update. “It is possible, though less likely, that the trans-Pacific peak season is also starting already.”
Levine said prior-year comparisons are not valid because of tariff-driven frontloading and erratic start and stops.
The National Retail Federation forecasts a July start to peak season, “so demand could start picking up soon if it hasn’t just yet. If there is no demand bump yet, it will remain to be seen if carriers have removed enough capacity to support the current price increases until volumes pick up.”
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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