Chart of the Week: Cass Freight Shipments Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index – USA SONAR: CFIS.USA, CTLI.USA
The domestic freight market has been on a long-running rollercoaster since the start of the century. The Cass Freight Shipments Index (CFIS) and the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index (CTLI) show how each cycle has differed from the last, and why predicting when each one begins and ends is extremely difficult.
The CFIS includes shipments across truckload, intermodal, LTL and several smaller modes, making it a good representation of total transportation demand over time. Because it is based on invoice data, it runs with a slight lag.
The CTLI measures the base cost of a truckload move, excluding fuel and accessorial charges. That makes it a good gauge of truckload rates without the influence of fuel, and base rates are a better indicator of supply and demand in the truckload market.
Looking at demand (CFIS) and truckload rates (CTLI) over the past 25 years, we can identify several distinct cycles, with one large anomaly in the middle.
Intra-recession era
Starting in 2000, the CFIS captured the early effects of the dot-com collapse and the economic fallout from 9/11 as the economy slipped into recession. Goods demand stayed muted longer than the broader economy did.
2004 was one of the strongest economic years in modern times. Low interest rates following the weak start to the decade fueled a housing boom, helped along by the subprime mortgage market that would cause problems later. Fuel prices became volatile, and real GDP grew about 3.8%. Strong goods demand and limited capacity fueled the rise of freight brokerages as more than a backhaul play for carriers. Brokers adopted new technology that had become far more accessible as the internet matured. This growing connectivity let smaller carriers haul for larger shippers and fueled the growth of owner-operators over the next decade.
In 2008, the housing market collapsed, triggering what became known as the Great Recession, with weakness lingering into 2010. By early 2011, the economy was recovering, and it grew at a slow but steady pace for the next five years.
The great stabilization defines normal
This post-recession period was the most stable of the past 26 years, and it set many people’s expectations of what “normal” looks like in the freight market. The CFIS followed a clear 12-month seasonal pattern, and base rates grew at about 3% a year until 2016.
Energy markets collapsed in late 2015, leading to a mini freight recession through most of 2016 that many participants did not fully recognize until after the fact. Economic growth slowed from roughly 4% in early 2015 to 1.5% a year later, and the industrial economy struggled. Truckload base rates fell about 2% as demand faltered.
By early 2017, capacity had tightened and demand was returning, and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed that December, added further fuel heading into 2018. Rising demand against shrinking capacity produced one of the strongest and longest spot-rate upswings in modern history. Hurricane Harvey and the ELD mandate made conditions even tighter that fall and winter. Many dismissed the period as a “black swan” that would not be repeated.
As with every rapid expansion covered here, contraction followed. The tax cuts gave the economy a temporary “sugar high.” Meanwhile, capacity grew quickly as strong rates attracted new entrants: active trucking authorities rose about 15% from early 2017 to early 2019.
The 2019 freight recession produced what were, at the time, the largest trucking failures of the century, as truckload carrier Celadon and LTL carrier New England Motor Freight shut down. That made the COVID era even more extreme, because capacity had been leaving the market just before demand boomed.
COVID breaks everything
COVID was the freight market’s second black-swan-type event in three years, which undercuts the idea that such events are rare. Government stimulus, enhanced unemployment benefits and the shift to working from home drove an unprecedented goods-demand boom and supply chain shocks. Once again, the overstimulated environment gave way to a downturn: the longest freight recession of the 2000s, lasting from early 2022 through the 2025 holiday season.
We are now approaching a year into a new cycle. The data suggests that putting a timeline on any cycle is a fool’s errand, and this one, like most, is full of nuance. Higher barriers to entry from regulatory pressure, diesel prices and interest rates are just a few of the factors at play. Demand remains relatively weak, which is hard to reconcile with an inflationary market. According to the CTLI, rates were up 10% in September, while volumes rose only 2%.
There are many lessons. The freight market does not operate on an island; it is shaped by outside forces and by every part of the economy. Expecting the 2010–2015 environment to return may be the worst assumption a business can make when planning ahead.
Timing is not the takeaway
History suggests that 12 months is the low end for how long this cycle will last. With demand still near the bottom of its range, any upside economic surprise could extend it by several months. Anyone betting on rates easing quickly in the coming months is also betting on a broader economic slowdown, and the hit to business revenue that comes with it. CFOs, take note.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
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