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Moe Nasr
Monday, 14 September 2026 / Published in Uncategorized

Ocean peak season endures, defying forecast of early end

Shipments may crest in September despite expectations peak season would fade by now, per the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

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Moe Nasr
Monday, 14 September 2026 / Published in Uncategorized

Small Fleet Financing: Why Buying Trucks Stops Making Sense

Truck financing is shifting fast: small fleets are borrowing to keep trucks running, not to add new ones. Dave Gilbert of National Funding breaks down why repair costs, insurance, fuel and downtime are changing the math for owner-operators and small carriers.

This conversation gets into the real issue for trucking businesses right now: cash flow. Even with freight demand holding up in spots, many fleets still can’t justify new equipment when used truck prices, maintenance bills and uncertainty keep stacking up.

#TruckFinancing #SmallFleets #FreightWavesToday

Small trucking fleets are pulling back from equipment purchases and turning instead to short-term repair financing, according to Dave Gilbert, founder and CEO of National Funding, which has financed trucking and transportation businesses for nearly 30 years. The shift reflects a compounding of cost pressures — rising used truck prices, fuel, insurance, and maintenance bills — that together make buying new or used equipment financially untenable for many small carriers right now.

“A lot of people aren’t looking for new vehicles because of all the prices and the cost to purchase them doesn’t outweigh the profit,” Gilbert said. With used truck values elevated and new units carrying additional fees, the calculus for small fleets has tilted decisively toward maintaining existing equipment rather than expanding.

“If you know you’re not gonna buy new vehicles for the foreseeable future, then take care of what you have, make sure you’re working with reliable vendors, and downtime always kills you.”

On the working capital side, National Funding is seeing demand concentrated in shorter durations — 60-, 90-, and 180-day bridge loans — rather than the multi-year equipment financing that characterized earlier expansion cycles. For vehicle financing, the company typically offers three- to five-year terms on used trucks and longer on new equipment, but Gilbert said demand for that product is contracting. Repair financing has become the dominant request. “Repair is probably the number one right now,” he said.

The qualification process for both products starts with a one-page application and bank cash-flow data, Gilbert said. Working capital loans carry one-year maximum terms, while equipment financing runs three to five years for used vehicles. He emphasized that the working capital product requires more care because it draws directly on a carrier’s operating cash, and some National Funding clients have taken on more than 40 loans over the course of their relationship with the company.

Small carriers facing growth decisions were cautioned against expanding for its own sake. The CEO described the primary risk as “greed” — adding trucks without confirmed margin. His advice for any carrier weighing new financing right now: scrutinize the contract, verify the margin, and confirm the freight opportunity before committing. He added that AI tools such as Claude are increasingly useful for smaller operators who want to stress-test their financial assumptions before approaching a lender.

Regionally, the CEO pointed to AI data center construction corridors as an area generating identifiable freight demand, while warning that weather extremes — particularly the approach of winter on the East Coast — create cash-flow volatility that small fleets must reserve for. Confidence, he argued, remains the most universal headwind: “Managing the company financially is probably the most important in terms of liquidity, having enough cash on hand.”

  • Gilbert says small carriers are shifting from truck purchases to short-term repair loans as used vehicle prices climb and buying economics no longer pencil out.
  • Working capital loan durations are compressing to 60–180 days, with repair financing now the top request among small fleet customers.
  • Carriers eyeing expansion are urged to lock in contracts with guaranteed margins before taking on new debt, with AI tools cited as a practical resource for financial due diligence.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.

The post Small Fleet Financing: Why Buying Trucks Stops Making Sense appeared first on FreightWaves.

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Moe Nasr
Monday, 14 September 2026 / Published in Uncategorized

How ServiceUp Centralizes Fleet Repair for Stellantis Vehicles

ServiceUp’s Andy Klobnock reveals a groundbreaking partnership with Stellantis Pro One, simplifying fleet repair by offering direct access to over 2,500 franchise dealers through a single, unified platform. This interview unpacks how fleets can now dispatch, track, and bill repairs more efficiently, addressing long-standing visibility and data access challenges in traditional maintenance processes. Learn how this collaboration not only streamlines operations for Stellantis vehicles but also paves the way for future AI-driven efficiencies across the entire light-duty to heavy-duty fleet market.

ServiceUp has struck a preference agreement with Stellantis Pro1 that gives fleets on its platform direct access to more than 2,500 franchise dealers, with repairs dispatched, tracked, and invoiced through a single system. The deal addresses one of the most persistent friction points in commercial fleet maintenance: the fragmented, paper-heavy process of managing warranty and mechanical work across hundreds of independent dealer franchisees.

“Fleets, you now have the ability to manage all of your Stellantis relationships across the entire network, across the entire U.S. in one single platform,” said ServiceUp COO Andy Klobnock. Under the arrangement, a fleet creates a repair order inside ServiceUp regardless of whether the receiving dealer is an independent operator or part of a larger group — the platform handles approvals and billing on the back end.

Billing standardization is a core feature of the integration. Dealer management systems vary widely — from CDK to Reynolds and others — meaning invoices historically arrived in inconsistent formats. ServiceUp ingests each invoice and maps it to the VMRS data standard, presenting fleets with one consolidated bill on their own payment terms while ServiceUp settles with Stellantis dealers separately.

“It doesn’t matter which dealer system a dealer is working off of. When we ingest that invoice and that estimate, we are mapping it to our data standard. And so when we pass that off to the fleet, they get one invoice in one format against one data standard,” Klobnock said.

The platform is not limited to Stellantis vehicles or franchise dealers. Klobnock said ServiceUp supports Class 1 through 8 vehicles and can route assignments to independent shops such as local garages or national chains like Goodyear. The company currently has roughly 25,000 shops in its network and expects to reach approximately 50,000 by year-end, with active discussions underway with large third-party providers in the Class 4 through 8 segment.

Artificial intelligence is playing a growing role in reducing administrative overhead. ServiceUp captures three data streams — repair line-item detail, cycle-time data for each step in the repair process, and shop capability profiles — and feeds that context to AI agents. Those agents can autonomously follow up with vendors on parts arrival and estimated completion dates, and flag potential billing anomalies such as an oil change billed 2,000 miles after a previous one when fleet policy calls for changes every 10,000 miles.

Klobnock said the Stellantis partnership also benefits dealers by providing visibility into fleet volume trends and labor-rate benchmarks that can help them compete more effectively for commercial work — a segment many franchise locations have historically underserved. Looking ahead, he said ServiceUp plans to announce additional OEM and fleet partnerships within the next two to three months, with a longer-term vision of vehicles automatically routing themselves to the optimal repair vendor based on fault codes, cost estimates, and turnaround time.

  • ServiceUp’s preference agreement with Stellantis Pro1 connects fleets to more than 2,500 franchise dealers through a single dispatch, tracking, and billing platform.
  • The company targets doubling its shop network from roughly 25,000 to 50,000 locations by year-end, including expansion into Class 4–8 mobile and third-party providers.
  • AI agents automate administrative tasks such as parts-status follow-ups and repair history-based fraud detection, reducing manual overhead for fleet managers.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.

The post How ServiceUp Centralizes Fleet Repair for Stellantis Vehicles appeared first on FreightWaves.

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Moe Nasr
Monday, 14 September 2026 / Published in Uncategorized

5 Freight Markets: Why Spot Rates Are Sending Mixed Signals

Spot rates are still elevated, but the freight market story changes fast once you drill into individual markets.

This SONAR update breaks down national tender rejections, tender volumes and spot rates, then digs into 5 key markets: Cincinnati, Detroit, Joliet, Miami and Houston. The big takeaway: rates alone can fool you. In some markets, stronger spot rates signal tightening capacity. In others, they do not. Market context matters if you’re pricing freight, planning capacity or reading where demand is actually headed.

Spot rates are holding firm even as tender volumes and rejection rates pull back, according to a Sept. 11 SONAR market update — but that national picture obscures wide swings at the metro level, with some markets tightening while others soften rapidly.

Nationally, the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index (STRI) sits at 13.22%, down 9% week over week and roughly 3.2% month over month. The Tender Volume Index (STVI) fell 10% both week over week and month over month. Despite those contractions, spot rates dipped briefly in late August around the Labor Day holiday before resuming their climb, signaling that carriers retain pricing leverage even as demand edges lower.

“Even with volumes and rejections falling a bit, spot rates are remaining elevated,” said Julie Van de Kamp. “Carriers still have some negotiation power in the market to continue to drive those spot rates up, but it is absolutely nuanced market by market throughout the country.”

Cincinnati and Detroit posted the steepest week-over-week spot rate gains among the five markets examined. Cincinnati showed a clean, correlated surge: spot rates up 20%, rejections up 15%, volumes up 7%, and a SONAR Haul Index reading of 25.96, confirming it as a solid headhaul market. Detroit’s 13% spot rate increase told a murkier story — rejection rates fell 14%, volume edged up only 2%, and the haul index turned negative at 7.26, suggesting the rate strength is not capacity-driven.

“Rate strength doesn’t look to be capacity driven here,” Van de Kamp said of Detroit. “There is some nuance there.”

On the declining side, Joliet was the starkest example of demand-led softening: spot rates dropped 15% week over week, rejections fell 12%, and volume slid 14%. Even though the market’s haul index remained positive at 34 — reflecting the structural outbound freight dominance of the broader Chicago area — Van de Kamp noted the retreat is “more than just a capacity story” and that demand is actively pulling back.

Miami and Houston offered the least ambiguous readings. Miami’s spot rates fell 24% week over week, with rejections down 9.5% and volume down 17.8%, consistent with its chronic backhaul status reflected in a haul index of -34.5. Houston mirrored that softness across every metric: spot rates off 15.4%, rejections down 25%, volume down 13%, and a haul index of -7.41 — “really unambiguous, just a soft market there right now,” Van de Kamp said.

The divergence across markets underscores the risk of relying solely on national averages. For brokers and shippers pricing freight or building carrier relationships, metro-level haul index data — which measures the balance of inbound versus outbound volume — can explain why rates move in directions that headline rejection and volume figures alone do not predict.

  • National spot rates remain elevated despite STRI falling 9% week over week to 13.22% and STVI dropping 10%, giving carriers continued pricing leverage.
  • Cincinnati is the clearest tightening market, with spot rates up 20%, rejections up 15%, and volumes up 7% week over week; Detroit’s 13% rate gain is complicated by falling rejections and a negative haul index.
  • Miami and Houston show unambiguous softness, with spot rates down 24% and 15.4% respectively, alongside falling rejections and volumes pointing to weakening demand rather than loose capacity alone.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.

The post 5 Freight Markets: Why Spot Rates Are Sending Mixed Signals appeared first on FreightWaves.

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Moe Nasr
Monday, 14 September 2026 / Published in Uncategorized

Google helps deploy 25 electric trucks in Texas as part of alliance

The tech giant is joining a coalition working to accelerate electric carrier Nevoya’s deployment and to reduce its supply chain emissions.

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Moe Nasr
Sunday, 13 September 2026 / Published in Uncategorized

Bank exits squeeze truck financing for mid-size fleets

Three and a half years of freight recession did two things to the truck financing market at once. It shredded the credit profiles of the carriers who most needed to borrow. It also pushed a large share of the lenders who would have lent to them out of the sector. Both are now rationing the equipment replacement cycle the industry has spent two years waiting on.

Kirk Mann stayed in. As executive vice president and general manager of the transportation vendor solutions business at Mitsubishi HC Capital America, he financed trucks through the entire downturn and watched a great many of them come back.

“There are a lot of lenders, banks that left, and so we’ve had the benefit of being one of the lenders actually lending money in this space,” Mann said in an interview with FreightWaves. What competition remains is mostly OEM captive finance arms, a couple of large independents and a few bank-led groups, he said.

The carriers that did not survive were overwhelmingly the newest. On average, 85% of motor carriers with fewer than two years of operating experience and their own operating authority failed over a three-year stretch of the downturn, Mann said.

The asset bubble behind the failure rate

Back in January 2023, Mann sat in Mitsubishi HC Capital’s Chicago offices with Wayne Pass, the company’s chief credit officer for vendor solutions, since retired. He asked what a Freightliner Cascadia 13-speed with a tall sleeper and fewer than 500,000 miles was worth. Both men wrote down $45,000. Mann then asked what the company was financing those trucks at. About $110,000.

“I remember we were in a bubble. It was an asset bubble of enormous proportions,” Mann said.

A typical 4-year-old sleeper tractor sold at auction in a range of roughly $30,000 to $50,000 across the 11 years between the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, according to J.D. Power’s Commercial Truck Guidelines. That same truck peaked near $118,000 in early 2022, a 136% jump over the highest pre-COVID peak in the same dataset. Class 8 average retail prices have since settled at $60,986 as of September, according to ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks report.

Mitsubishi HC Capital lent into that bubble knowing what it was.

“We made the decision to stay in that market even though we knew there was a tremendous asset bubble, because we wanted people to know we were there,” Mann said. “And if I could do it over again, I’m not sure I’d do it exactly like that. But we’d probably mitigate our risk exposure a little bit differently.”

The unwind arrived as repossessions. “The problem was when things kind of unwound those trucks were coming back because there were payments that people couldn’t sustain, and so those trucks came back like in droves,” Mann said. The lender has since improved recoveries on transportation assets by 15% by building out a dedicated asset management function, Equipment Finance News reported.

Fewer lenders in truck financing, weaker credit profiles

Carriers reading the market as a credit squeeze are half right. Mann said his underwriting did not change. It was the borrowers who did.

“We don’t really change our underwriting philosophy or process, but the credit profile of the customer definitely changes during these down cycles,” he said. “So it feels like lenders are squeezing up and we’re not. We’re just trying to do business with customers that have the right credit profile, and of course those deteriorate over a three-and-a-half-year cycle.”

Freight cycles normally run 12 to 18 months. This one ran nearly three times that, with the damage compounding along the way.

The price of capital is now segregating carriers by how much of that damage they absorbed. Financing runs from roughly 5.25% for investment-grade private fleets up to 12% or higher for lower-credit small operators, who are typically asked for a deposit as well, Mann noted in a  FreightWaves Today interview. Fleets of 50 to 200 units are increasingly approaching Mitsubishi HC Capital through dealer relationships, according to the same interview.

Where the replacement demand is coming from

For two years the industry pinned the coming equipment wave on EPA 2027 pre-buying. Mann does not.

“I don’t think it’s a lot of EPA pre-buy. I think it’s just simply replacement demand and people have released themselves to go ahead and replace their trucks,” he said.

Manufacturers have split on how to handle the 2027 rules, some building the compliant truck and others planning to run legacy models on banked credits or pay the penalty, which leaves 2027 pricing unsettled. His team polls dealers on it constantly and gets different answers depending on the make they carry. He is not expecting a spike large enough to drive purchasing behavior.

Volume through the dealer channel is up regardless. Over-the-road volume at Mitsubishi HC Capital has improved by roughly 30%, Mann said, driven mostly by medium and large fleets replacing equipment they held far past the normal trade cycle. Fleets buying new buy almost entirely new: Mann put it at 80% new, with late-model used taking the rest when the truck is still under warranty and spec’d to fleet standards. He called that estimate qualitative.

One thing that is not happening is expansion.

“I don’t think what you’re seeing today is fleet expansion for sure. The manufacturers can only produce so much, right? So those build slots go away quickly in this when you’re recovering,” Mann said. Combine a normal trade cycle with three years of deferred replacement, he said, and the number is bigger than the build slots available to absorb it.

Mann credits the rate improvement to supply leaving, not freight demand returning. Private fleets that lost volume on their own goods spent the downturn hauling for hire, which added capacity to a market that already had too much.

“So they use their trucks in the for-hire market which continually compressed, created more capacity, compressed price even more, and so it was a tough, tough situation to be in for three and a half years for any for-hire carrier,” Mann said.

Cost per mile decides the deal

For a carrier preparing to finance, one number supercedes the financial statements.

“For the larger customers, every lender out there that does the bigger fleet deals, they want to see that the fleet understands their cost per mile,” Mann said. “If you don’t understand your cost per mile, nothing else really matters.”

Statements coming out of the recession will not look like 2021, and lenders are adding more scrutiny when underwriting. Those who do not know their costs are at a disadvantage when convincing a lender to help them fund asset purchases.

“If someone cannot tell me their cost per mile for all of the categories that are included in their expense load, I really don’t have a desire to do anything with that customer. I mean, I just wouldn’t,” Mann said.

It’s not all bad news for carriers who may have made capital allocation mistakes, or bought at the wrong time. It just requires extra effort and due diligence.

“What you’re trying to do is you’re trying to tell a story and paint a picture of improvement,” he said. “Your driver pay, your maintenance, all the insurance, all the costs associated with that truck — what’s happening there. Because the revenue won’t cover up bad management on the expense side.”

The post Bank exits squeeze truck financing for mid-size fleets appeared first on FreightWaves.

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Moe Nasr
Sunday, 13 September 2026 / Published in Uncategorized

Borderlands Mexico: Exports of Mexican-made heavy-duty trucks to US roar back

Borderlands Mexico is a weekly rundown of developments in the world of United States-Mexico cross-border trucking and trade. This week in Borderlands Mexico: Exports of Mexican-made heavy-duty trucks to US roar back and Nexio secures 77-acre Texas campus for commercial truck production.

Exports of Mexican-made heavy-duty trucks to US roar back

Mexico’s heavy-duty vehicle industry posted a sharp rebound in August, with production doubling and exports more than doubling from a year earlier, while domestic wholesale sales continued to recover.

Heavy-duty manufacturers in Mexico produced 16,389 trucks and buses in August, a 100.2% increase from 8,187 units in August 2025, according to data released Wednesday by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

Exports jumped even faster, rising 116.7% year over year to 14,310 units, compared with 6,605 vehicles during the same month last year.

The August gains represent a significant turnaround from weakness earlier in the year, although year-to-date growth remains much more modest.

From January through August, manufacturers produced 101,940 heavy-duty vehicles, up 2.6% compared with 99,311 during the same period in 2025. Exports totaled 85,687 units, a 3.7% increase from 82,620 a year earlier.

Cargo vehicles accounted for 97.6% of Mexican heavy-duty vehicle production through August, totaling 99,526 units, while passenger buses represented the remaining 2,414 vehicles.

The U.S. remains overwhelmingly the industry’s largest export market. Through August, Mexico shipped 79,261 heavy-duty vehicles to the U.S., representing 92.5% of all exports. Canada ranked second with 3,809 units, or 4.4%, followed by Colombia with 1,697 units, or 2%.

Freightliner, International drive production surge

Freightliner led heavy-duty vehicle production in Mexico during August with 10,240 units, a 133.1% increase from 4,393 a year earlier. International produced 4,525 units, up 100.8%, while Kenworth produced 1,087, an 8.5% increase.

Freightliner also dominated exports, shipping 10,073 Mexico-built vehicles abroad during August, up 151.4% year over year. International exported 3,877 units, an 89.6% increase, while Kenworth exports fell 35.3% to 358 units.

Manufacturer August production YoY August exports YoY
Freightliner 10,240 +133.1% 10,073 +151.4%
International 4,525 +100.8% 3,877 +89.6%
Kenworth 1,087 +8.5% 358 -35.3%
Isuzu 132 +4.8% — —
Mercedes-Benz Autobuses 106 +6.0% — —
Hino 105 +72.1% — —
Foton 70 +311.8% — —
Volkswagen Camiones y Autobuses 51 -32.9% — —
Volvo Buses 49 -47.3% 2 N/A
Dina 24 +41.2% — —

Source: INEGI. August 2026 figures are preliminary.

Mexico’s truck fleet has an average age of 19.3 years, according to ANPACT. The organization called for expanded financing, tax incentives, scrappage programs and measures addressing imports of used heavy-duty vehicles from the United States.

About 26,000 used heavy-duty vehicles entered Mexico from the U.S. in 2025, compared with roughly 29,000 in 2024. Although those imports fell 29.2% year over year during the first seven months of 2026, ANPACT said roughly 53 used imported vehicles enter Mexico for every 100 new vehicles sold in the country.

USMCA review, tariffs loom over Mexico truck industry

ANPACT also highlighted trade policy as a growing concern for manufacturers ahead of the USMCA review and amid U.S. Section 232 tariffs.

The association called for preserving the trade agreement’s existing rules of origin while reducing tariff burdens on companies that have invested to comply with regional-content requirements.

“The industry needs certainty,” Arzate said, according to a translation of his remarks. “Automotive investments are planned for the long term and require clear rules to make decisions about new plants, suppliers and production capacity.”

ANPACT said it supports increasing regional content as agreed under USMCA to 70% in 2027, rather than loosening rules of origin, while seeking lower tariffs affecting the integrated North American heavy-duty vehicle supply chain.

Nexio secures 77-acre Texas campus for commercial truck production

Nexio Power has secured a 77-acre industrial campus in Anderson, Texas, that the company plans to use for commercial truck production, finishing, testing and warehousing, according to a news release.

The Texas-based manufacturer of propane-powered commercial vehicles said the property includes about 180,000 square feet of existing production capacity and is already equipped for heavy-duty vehicle manufacturing. 

The previous operator used the site for large-scale fabrication and assembly, leaving infrastructure that includes paint and blast facilities, 13 overhead cranes, a dedicated testing complex and racked warehousing.

Nexio said the Anderson operation will allow it to begin truck production while serving as a bridge to a larger campus the company plans to develop in Lufkin, Texas.

The Anderson property will eventually provide excess production capacity once the Lufkin operation comes online, according to the company.

Nexio said the facility will support complete vehicle assembly, beginning with chassis preparation and the installation of powertrains and cabs and continuing through superstructure assembly, wiring, plumbing, bodywork, painting and finishing.

The site will also have quality-control and chassis dynamometer capabilities before vehicles are shipped, as well as repair and refurbishment operations alongside new-vehicle production.

On-site propane Autogas fueling will support the company’s alternative-fuel vehicles.

Nexio describes itself as a Texas manufacturer of propane-powered commercial vehicles and alternative-fuel engines serving propane distribution and delivery operations as well as Class 5-8 commercial fleets.

The Anderson campus is located along Highway 30 in Grimes County between College Station and Huntsville, about 90 miles from the Port of Houston and 80 miles from George Bush Intercontinental Airport.

Nexio did not disclose the purchase or lease terms for the Anderson property in its announcement, nor did it specify the number of employees expected at the campus or an annual production target.

Why it matters: The sharp August rebound highlights the scale of Mexico’s North American truck manufacturing base, with the U.S. absorbing more than 92% of Mexican heavy-duty vehicle exports so far this year.

The post Borderlands Mexico: Exports of Mexican-made heavy-duty trucks to US roar back appeared first on FreightWaves.

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Moe Nasr
Sunday, 13 September 2026 / Published in Uncategorized

Tanker on fire after Hormuz attack

Omani Navy evacuating crew of Panama-flagged vessel struck by an unknown projectile

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Moe Nasr
Sunday, 13 September 2026 / Published in Uncategorized

Imports and inventories stabilize in 2026, but for how long

Chart of the Week: Import Ocean TEUs Volume Index – USA, Logistics Managers’ Index – Inventory Levels SONAR: IOTI.USA, LMI.INVL

Import bookings (IOTI) have been averaging lower than the previous two years, while inventory levels have been fairly stable according to the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI). Bookings activity combined with inventory data points to a steady but tight inventory management environment — one of the tightest of the post-COVID era. This also means many companies may be exposed to missed revenue in the fourth quarter as they try to mitigate the rising costs of holding too much for too long.

The IOTI is an index that measures bookings of container imports with a 14-day moving average. Like most indexes, its use case is directional, and the current direction is flatter than in any of the previous four years.

The inventory level component of the LMI measures how quickly survey respondents are reporting expanding or contracting inventories. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while values below 50 indicate contraction. This past year has been one of the most stable in recent history, peaking in June at 60.5 and hitting its 2026 low in August at 52.8.

Seasonal fluctuations are normal, as shippers go through restocking and destocking periods throughout the year. These peaks and valleys can tell us how successful they have been in forecasting demand. The relative flatness indicates they have been extremely efficient in optimizing inventory.

In late 2021, bookings were already relatively high, as shippers were facing significant supply chain challenges that eased rapidly in 2022, when demand fell and their over-ordering strategy caught up with them. The LMI inventory level reading went from 58.8 in November 2021 to 80.18 in February 2022.

Importers did not shift their strategy until that summer, when the IOTI fell nearly 40% from June to October. The IOTI remained subdued into mid-2023 while inventory levels contracted. The great destocking waned in late 2023 and was replaced in 2024 by a period of rebuilding. The IOTI averaged nearly 15% higher in 2024, while the LMI closed the year averaging a healthy expansion reading.

Tariffs and erratic trade policy heavily influenced 2025, with the IOTI spiking to COVID-era highs in summer, then plummeting in fall, netting an expansionary inventory situation until the end of the year, when inventory levels contracted at the fastest pace in the index’s history.

This past year has been far less chaotic, but possibly no less nerve-racking, as shippers navigate rapidly expanding transportation and inventory costs in a very shaky consumer environment. Politics have become increasingly intertwined with economics, making many uneasy about the state of things despite the aggregate figures painting a fairly stable picture.

So far, taking a down-the-middle approach to ordering and expectations has worked well in aggregate. The IOTI and LMI figures have been historically consistent, indicating that businesses are selling about as much as they are ordering. This works well in a stable economy, but it is a fine line to walk. This year’s holiday season is one of the most challenging to predict — one that has left the nation’s top economic minds struggling amid all the moving parts.

Looking at the chart above, history would be a poor predictor of what happens next, as each of the past five years has looked nothing like the one before it. Shippers will have to decide whether simply doing more of the same makes sense, but it would be wise to monitor the situation closely and have contingencies ready so they can react quickly if they want to close out the year on the right foot.

About the Chart of the Week

The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.

SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.

The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.

To request a SONAR demo, click here.

The post Imports and inventories stabilize in 2026, but for how long appeared first on FreightWaves.

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Moe Nasr
Saturday, 12 September 2026 / Published in Uncategorized

CBP: Shippers could lose import privileges if customs info is wrong

The agency will void the right to bring merchandise into the U.S for shippers with inaccurate information on file, starting Sept. 18.

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