Rising driver pay is typically a sign of improving truckload fundamentals. While it is still early in the upcycle, some carriers are implementing pay hikes to keep drivers happy and their equipment seated.
Joliet, Illinois-based carrier GP Transco announced Monday that it has increased pay for all company drivers by 5 cents per mile. The rate bump pushes the upper end of its pay scale to 72 cents per mile. Top performers will also have a chance to earn another 6 cents per mile in incentive pay.
All in, a first-year driver with the company now has a chance to make nearly $100,000.
“As the freight market continues to move in the right direction, we are excited to pass that momentum on to our drivers,” said Amos Savickas, head of operations at GP Transco. “Our drivers showed patience, professionalism, and commitment throughout a very challenging market, and this increase is a direct reflection of how much we value their work.”
The company is also enhancing driver home time by offering 48-hour weekend breaks after two weeks on the road, improving upon the previous three-week requirement.
A supply-led trucking recovery has prompted the need for enhanced driver pay and perks.
Heightened regulatory enforcement has been purging noncompliant drivers from the market since last fall. It started with tighter enforcement of non-domiciled CDL rules and English-language proficiency requirements. Authorities also took aim at questionable driver schools and ELD providers.
More recently, federal authorities have been strictly enforcing cabotage rules and revoking visas. Further, the impact that the Supreme Court’s broker liability ruling will have on driver vetting and insurance requirements is still being contemplated across the industry.
Dwindling supply has had a pronounced impact on pricing, with many publicly traded carriers saying contract rates set earlier in this year’s bid season are no longer valid. Carriers appearing at investor conferences in recent weeks have flagged the potential for double-digit rate increases this year and next.
Many public carriers have also noted the need for driver pay increases in certain geographies and on certain lanes. However, the group is looking to restore margins after a nearly four-year downturn. Enterprise-wide pay hikes are not yet in the works for this group, as they believe better asset utilization and load selection will increase paid miles and ultimately driver pay.
Dubuque, Iowa-based Hirschbach announced its over-the-road company and lease drivers will see a total pay increase of 10 cents per mile in the coming months. In addition to the increase, it is also planning other adjustments across its regional, local and dedicated operations.
“This is a significant investment in our drivers and a reflection of the value they bring to Hirschbach every day,” said CEO Richard Stocking. “Our drivers are the backbone of our operation, and we’re committed to ensuring they are recognized and rewarded for the critical role they play in serving our customers and moving our business forward.”
More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden:
- Cass sees freight volume recovery in second half of year
- Routing guides are crumbling: ‘It is different this time’
- Truckload carriers eyeing multiyear rate upcycle
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But supply chain normalcy is likely months off as anxious shippers spur an early peak in a rush to beat fuel surcharges and price hikes by Asian manufacturers.
Spot rates on the benchmark Asia-U.S. West Coast route were unchanged at $4,836 per forty foot equivalent unit (FEU) in the latest week, according to the Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO) Baltic Index. The price for Asia-U.S. East Coast service was 4% higher at $6,558 per FEU.
The United States and Iran are scheduled to sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19, few details of which have been made public. That will re-open the Strait of Hormuz within a reported 30 days, which had been effectively closed to global shipping since shortly after the start of the war in late February. Washington and Iran will have 60 days to negotiate the terms of a formal deal.
“The war’s broadest impact on freight markets has been via upward pressure on fuel prices,” said Freightos Research Chief Judah Levine, in a note to clients. “The reopening could mean some near term easing of fuel costs for carriers. President Trump asserts that the Strait will be fully open by the time of the signing, but even if both blockades are lifted then, the consensus is that a full return of traffic will likely take months as the narrow passage is further narrowed by Iranian mines.”
Some countries which have committed to the de-mining process have expressed reservations about participating until a final peace accord is completed. A trickle of ships had been using the few safe lanes established under Iranian control and the U.S. naval blockade.
Levine quoted estimates that it could take several weeks for daily vessel transits to return to half pre-war levels, and as long as six months for oil flows to normalize.
“In addition to out-of-place tankers and damage to infrastructure, even once vessels exit, it takes about seven weeks for crude to arrive in the Far East,” he said, “with an even longer timeline for availability of refined products like bunker and jet fuel first dependent on those crude shipments arriving.”
A priority by countries to replenish strategic reserves could mean a rebound of commercial supply rebound will be drawn out, moderating downward pressure on oil prices and the cost of fuel.
“Near-term easing of fuel costs would reduce some of the upward pressure on [container] rates that have kept prices higher year-on-year since the start of the war,” Levine said. ”But while reduced Emergency Fuel Surcharges will be relevant for spot shipments, large shippers with annual contracts will still be paying higher rates via third quarter Bunker Adjustment Factors (BAFs) even as fuel costs decline.”
Post-fuel issues, Levine expects vessel capacity to pressure container prices downward as they had prior to the war.
“And if the peace deal hastens a broad carrier return to the Red Sea, that downward pressure will be even stronger,” he said.
That gradual timeline is too late to influence the peak season, though, where demand is driving spiking rates.
General Rate Increases (GRIs) and Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) went into effect June 1, making mid-month increases likely to stick as carriers roll containers and reduce allocations.
The peak season’s early start, driven in part by frontloading ahead of BAF increases, tariffs, and coming manufacturer price hikes could see bookings top out in June, spurring resistance to July increases.
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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Supply chain volatility has moved from a temporary disruption to a permanent feature of the operating environment, according to the 2026 State of Logistics Report released Tuesday. U.S. business logistics costs totaled $2.4 trillion last year, or 7.8% of gross domestic product, down from $2.6 trillion and 8.7% of GDP in 2025.
The report, authored by Kearney and presented by Penske Logistics for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, identifies five structural forces that continue to reshape the macro environment. These include asymmetrical global growth, tightening financial conditions, geoeconomic realignment, labor and productivity constraints, and energy price volatility.
Regional growth remains uneven, with the United States, India and Southeast Asia outperforming Europe and Gulf economies. Disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and frequent tariff changes add ongoing pressure to trade lanes.
For carriers and shippers, the findings represent more than another difficult year. Traditional drivers of performance such as demand recovery and network scale are becoming less reliable. Success now depends more on building resilience into operations. This includes maintaining pricing discipline, and accelerating investments in digital tools and automation. The goal is to deliver measurable returns under volatile conditions.
Artificial intelligence has crossed from evaluation into commercial application in targeted areas. The report notes progress in using AI to interpret network signals, predict disruptions, recommend actions and execute workflows. Physical automation in warehouses and transportation are showing early commercial milestones. Adoption remains uneven, however, widening the gap between companies embedding AI into core operations and those still limited to isolated point solutions.
Five structural forces define the macro outlook
The report identifies five persistent structural forces showing no signs of resolution: asymmetrical global growth, tightening financial conditions driven by persistent inflation and rising public debt, accelerating trade flow and geoeconomic realignment, labor market and productivity constraints and energy price volatility.
The report notes a divergence in regional growth across the globe. The United States projects 2.2 percent to 2.4 percent growth for 2026, while India and Southeast Asia lead expansion. Europe lags at roughly 1 percent. GCC economies have turned negative, contracting 1.2 percent as the Middle East conflict disrupts energy flows.
The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a defining chokepoint, carrying 20 million barrels of oil per day and 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas trade. Tariff policy was another major factor. It changed on average every 1.5 weeks in 2025, creating what the report calls a “paralysis effect” on network reconfiguration decisions.
AI crosses from trial to measurable returns
Artificial intelligence has evolved beyond trials and reached a genuine turning point in logistics. It is no longer an experimental technology. Instead, it is now delivering measurable commercial returns in specific, well-defined applications.
The report frames AI value creation through four capabilities: interpret, predict, recommend and execute. Interpret and predict are the most mature, built on years of investment in visibility platforms and telematics. Physical AI, covering warehouse robotics and autonomous vehicles, is producing some of the industry’s most visible commercial milestones.
Adoption remains uneven, widening the gap between organizations that have embedded AI into core workflows and those still confined to isolated point solutions.
Freight sector divergence intensifies
Air freight posted record cargo volumes in 2025 with global demand up 3.4 percent, but corridor-level results told the real tale. Asia-Europe surged 10.3 percent as shippers rerouted around disruptions while Asia-North America slipped 0.8 percent. Early 2026 showed acceleration, but rising fuel costs, sustainable aviation fuel requirements and geopolitical routing constraints are adding volatility. The market is shifting toward value-dense cargo where speed and reliability matter more than pure freight cost.
The U.S. parcel and last-mile sector has undergone a structural reset, not post-pandemic normalization. Removal of de minimis treatment for China-origin parcels cut daily volumes by about 85 percent, pushing volume toward domestic fulfillment. Carrier costs have reset with general rate increases around 5.9 percent plus fuel and accessorial surcharges. Demand remains supported by more than $1.23 trillion in U.S. e-commerce but has split into a barbell: ultra-low-cost regional delivery on one end and premium-speed service on the other. Platform-controlled routing is shifting advantage from network ownership to intelligence and integration.
The third-party logistics (3PL) sector sits at a strategic inflection point. Shippers are moving from transactional execution to end-to-end orchestration amid regulatory complexity, tariff volatility and cross-border shifts. Leading providers are responding by expanding scale and node density. They are embedding real-time visibility and deploying AI to manage cost without proportional headcount growth. Winners are evolving toward integrated, 4PL-like solutions.
Freight forwarding entered 2026 in structural reset. Margin discipline is the priority amid persistent overcapacity in ocean despite stabilizing volumes. Geopolitical disruption has become continuous rather than episodic. Value is migrating from traditional brokerage margins toward higher-value services such as customs, compliance, warehousing and supply chain financing, supported by technology-enabled solutions.
Ocean freight remains structurally oversupplied even as disruptions reduce effective capacity. Fleet growth outpaced demand in 2025, and a wave of new-build capacity entering in 2026 is deepening the imbalance. Multiple chokepoints, including the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, Panama Canal and Black Sea, have provided short-term rate support while limiting alternatives. For shippers, the soft market creates a procurement window, but volatility rewards contract flexibility and scenario planning over attempts to time the market.
Strategic takeaways for what lies ahead
Mark Baxa, president and chief executive officer of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, summed it up: “The supply chain of right now is incredibly complex and requires a series of constant adjustments. Last year’s supply chain looks different than today’s supply chain. I surmise that next year’s logistics network will be hardly recognizable.”
The report lays out five strategic implications: Design networks for resilience, not just efficiency; prioritize asset productivity over footprint expansion; embed trade compliance and geopolitical intelligence as competitive capabilities; accelerate digital and automation ROI; and reassess capital structure and investment pacing with emphasis on shorter, measurable payback periods.
“This year’s report arrives at a moment when the forces reshaping global supply chains are no longer temporary disruptions, but enduring features of the operating environment,” said Korhan Acar, a Kearney partner and lead author of the report. “Rising costs driven by energy volatility, inflation and geopolitical instability are placing pressure on margins and forcing leaders to rethink traditional operating models. At the same time, we have reached a genuine turning point in the autonomous era. The companies that will lead are those combining resilience, intelligent logistics and disciplined execution to protect margins and outperform in an increasingly volatile world.”
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Routing guides are crumbling. Truckload contract rates set early in the 2026 bid season aren’t holding, management teams at some of the nation’s largest carriers told investors at a conference last week.
Mini-bid activity has spiked, and some shippers have been forced to rebid their entire book as tender rejections surge, Spencer Frazier, head of sales and marketing at J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ: JBHT), told investors at the Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference in Chicago.
“The only reason that happens is because routing guides, once implemented, start to crumble,” Frazier said. “They’re falling apart. And that’s what has happened at an accelerated pace … from March through today.”
Heightened regulatory enforcement has been purging noncompliant drivers from the market since last fall. The impact on the supply side was notable in the spot market around Thanksgiving when rates began to step higher. With additional levers being pulled more recently (strict policing of cabotage rules and the Supreme Court’s broker liability ruling) many believe market fundamentals have been structurally altered.
“It is different this time,” Frazier said. “Our customers are experiencing basically the increased enforcement of government regulations, and regulations that were existing, and a few new ones.”
He said the shift in industry capacity is structural, not transitory, implying TL rates could stay inflationary much longer than in past cycles. The regulatory push on top of cost hurdles (elevated equipment expenses, safety-driven insurance headwinds and higher fuel prices) will likely keep new entrants at bay for a while. This contrasts with previous gold-rush-like cycles, where an influx of new entrants oversupplied the market and drove pricing lower as they were forced to rely on load board rates to service truck lease payments.
“The ability for our industry to respond to that in the old way is just not going to be there,” Frazier said.
Jim Filter, group president of transportation and logistics at Schneider National (NYSE: SNDR), echoed a similar sentiment on the market’s turnabout due to increased driver standards.
He pointed to the Supreme Court’s Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II ruling, which widened liability exposure for freight brokers found negligent in their driver hiring practices, as an additional gating factor.
“Based on our experience, there aren’t 50,000 carriers in this country that you could vet and say that they’re safe,” Filter said.
That runs counter to just a few years ago when brokers were touting the 100,000-plus third-party-carrier lists that they had amassed.
Filter said it will likely take “a couple of allocation events to recoup price” after a runup in nearly every operating expense line on the P&L over the past few years.
Management from Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN) was also bullish on the company’s prospects. It views the Montgomery ruling as a “net benefit” for its brokerage business. It said shippers are aligning with asset-based brokers that can guarantee trucks and driver compliance.
Most carriers raised bid season expectations during the first-quarter earnings season, which ended in early May. The group had targeted low- to mid-single-digit rate increases entering the year, but a tightening supply side now has it calling for mid- to high-single-digit increases, with some shippers already seeing double-digit rate hikes.
Schneider said contract renewals were at the highest level since 2021 on its first-quarter call.
J.B. Hunt flagged the likelihood of a cumulative 20% rate hike over the next two years at an investor conference last month.
An increase in demand will likely be required at some point to sustain the upcycle. Carriers have seen typical season demand patterns in recent quarters, but not material improvements. A still-resilient but weakening consumer has carried the economy since the pandemic. The data center boom has helped spur industrial activity this year, but the housing and auto sectors remain drags, and the next move in interest rates may be up, not down. Virtually every TL recovery has been demand-led, not supply-led.
More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden:
- Analysts say Amazon won’t shake LTL market—yet
- LTL general rate increases no longer an annual event
- ArcBest raises Q2 outlook for LTL, asset-light units
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The United States and Iran reached agreement on a deal to end the war and lift restrictions on the vital Strait of Hormuz that stranded thousands of ships in the Persian Gulf.
Reports said that the memorandum of understanding, the terms of which were not released, will be signed June 19. It would suspend sanctions on Iran oil, release $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and provide 60 days for the two countries to hash out a permanent settlement that includes Tehran’s nuclear program.
The U.S. within 30 days will lift its blockade of the strait, through which 20% of the world’s crude oil supply flows.
The conflict also throttled shipping of fertilizer and other chemicals, to the point where fears of shortages led President Donald Trump to temporarily suspend the Jones Act. That allowed foreign ships to carry gas and fertilizer between Gulf Coast producers, inland ports and northeast markets.
The war impacted fuel and gas production in the Persian Gulf, pushing bunker prices sharply up ahead of the peak shipping season. Analysts say it will likely be months until capacity can be normalized across the supply chain.
At the same time, thousands of mines laid in the Gulf will have to be cleared to provide a safe path for shipping.
“A full return to pre-crisis normality will likely take two to three months,” said analyst Lars Jensen. “Not just because vessel rotations need to be altered, but we also need to see empty return patterns normalized. Plus, there will be cargo ready to ship into the Gulf which has been waiting elsewhere for a few months until an opening happened. This can create a surge problem and associated bottleneck issues.”
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
Related coverage:
Shippers say renewed tax on Chinese ships could put some U.S. ag producers out of business
Mid-term money-saver: DOT wants to pre-screen containers to speed supply chain
Like trucking and railroads, shipping struggles in fight for talent, aging workforcePort of Los Angeles forecasts 7% container volume declineLong Beach awards $54M in small
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